The Future of North Dakota

“The farmer has to be an optimist or he wouldn’t still be a farmer.” — Will Rogers

Farmers and Ranchers in Crisis started as a project to highlight problems in North Dakota due the trade wars and to fairly portray the seriousness of this crisis. One thing is clear, we are at a crossroads. Rural communities are dying due to migration and lack of services. Small farms are getting larger, oil and coal are facing a bleak future, commodities prices are falling, and overhead costs are rising. But these trends still have time to be reversed.

Family Farms Disappearing

 “If the game favored little guys a bit more, maybe they could stay on the farm a few more years, rather than going under. Once small farmers go under, they do not come back.”

-Travis Anderson

In the United States, the number of farm bankruptcies was up in the Midwest from July of 2018 to June of 2019. The nation lost more than 100,000 farms between 2011 and 2018, 12,000 of those between 2017 and 2018. The number of farms with more than 2,000 acres nearly doubled between 1987 and 2012, according to USDA data at the expense of smaller farms. The number of farms with 200 to 999 acres fell over that time period by 44%. In the Midwest, 81% of rural counties saw population declines between 2008 and 2017.

“By spending billions of dollars on crop insurance programs, the government incentivises big expansion of farms. This is because large operations and limited liability partnerships (LLPs) can purchase cheap crop insurance and basically the government serves as their risk management. By allowing this it gives large farms the capital to buy out or rent out the cropland base from underneath smaller farms until the little guys go under and the larger guys buy up their acreages. Get big or get out.”

-Todd Leake

In North Dakota the average size of a farm is 1,492 acres and growing. In North Dakota, farms over 1,000 acres account for more than 35% of farms vs the national average of 8%. The total value of agricultural products sold is decreasing every year which means the net income of the average farmer is decreasing. This has been true every year since 2012. Farmers are getting older with an average age of 56, six years older than they were 30 years ago. The number of young producers, defined as age 35 or less accounts for 12% of all producers. The good news is farming is getting a bit more diverse, as 29% of all producers are female. The bottom line is that farms are becoming bigger, being run by older people, and the number of farms is shrinking. If commodity prices continue to fall and if fewer people are around to run them, who will run our farms in the future? 

“Look at the makeup of what the feel of North Dakota is and what kind of state will it be if you don’t have farmers around? I don’t even know who’s gonna want to live here. It’s just the way life and the sense of community is slowly disappearing.” 

-Tyler Stafslien

Changing Demographics in Rural North Dakota

Since the start of the Bakken oil play,  North Dakota experienced a renaissance of sorts. Oil extraction in the northwest part of the state brought revenue, jobs, and economic growth. After being stagnant for almost the entire latter half of the 20th century, 2011 saw North Dakota’s population exceed its 1930 high of 650,000. The state’s unemployment level in the mid 2000s went down to 2.5% percent and stayed there for almost a decade. These oil jobs weren’t just low wage jobs like other parts of the country, they were high paying jobs that didn’t require much more than a high school diploma. Businesses that serviced oil companies also  saw their wages increase. Small towns in western North Dakota became less dependent on farming and more on oil. Family farms lost local workers because they couldn’t compete with the better paying oil related jobs. Migrant workers were recruited to fill the gaps but farms often found themselves short of workers during the busiest times of the year. The central, northeast, and southern parts of the state have been hit hardest with thousands of people moving to Bismarck, Grand Forks, Fargo, or the Northwest oil fields in search of better paying jobs. Many farms rely on two incomes to gain access to health insurance so these new businesses provided more opportunity for off farm jobs. The oil boom brought some benefits such as more and new goods and services in rural communities, especially in northwestern ND. But  it came at a cost, air quality issues, social issues, and environmental issues changed the makeup of our state.

“Without a seismic shift in the policies that govern agriculture to make it so that smaller farms like mine can survive or even thrive, it’s gonna be desolate. There’ll be nobody left out here. I grew up in Makoti ND, I drove through it the other day and I started thinking there’s not a single farmer that lives there anymore. When I was a kid you were either a farmer, you worked for a farmer, you worked for the grain elevator, or you worked for the implement dealer. It was all a farm based economy. Today most of those people that live in that town are oil workers. Inevitably, when the oil markets eventually decline or oil is longer being produced in western North Dakota, we’re going to realize that all the small farms and medium-sized farms are gone and it’s only mega farms. You’ve got nobody left.” 

-Tyler Stafslien

So far North Dakota is still growing in some rural counties but the trend for rural America in general isn’t looking good. In the past 10 years 130 rural hospitals closed their doors, while none have closed their doors in North Dakota. Many hospitals have seen reduction in services or have trouble hiring staff. Grocery stores are disappearing in North Dakota with the number of full-service stores in rural communities declining from 137 to 98 in the last five years, with many more on the verge of closing. This is due in part because many of these stores need costly upgrades and have declining clientele. These two factors make it extremely tough to find investors to keep the business open when the owner retires. Access to fresh produce and healthy food will be a challenge in the future if this trend continues. So what can reverse the trend and revitalize rural North Dakota communities?

Coal and oil has been good for the state in some respects (if you forgive the environmental externalities), bringing in tax revenue and jobs but it’s not going to be here forever. Many communities are aware of the boom/bust cycle that has happened to them in the previous decades and this cycle is no exception. It’s completely understandable that coal and oil will lobby to protect its interests and that many people living and working at the plants want to keep their jobs and not retrain late in their careers. Coal and oil have brought jobs and energy but many experts including international leaders advocate that fossil fuels must be phased out by the year 2050 (and some climate experts recommend doing it by 2030). As a result, North Dakota needs to start planning for the future. 

CAFOS and North Dakota

Agriculture has seen many changes over the years but the fundamental structures have not changed much since the early 70s or in some cases the 1950s. It was Ag Secretary Earl Butz in the 1970s that started encouraging farmers to “get big or get out” and this promoted the rise of the CAFO (Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation, better known as factory farming). In recent years, states all over the country have passed “Right to Farm” laws. These laws are sold as protecting a farmer from complaints from people living in suburban developments encroaching into traditional farmland. The real intention is protecting large farming operations from environmental regulations and reducing obstacles that would prevent new CAFOs from being built. The idea of the CAFO is to maximize efficiency. However, the large concentration of animals means huge amounts of manure and urine from the animals to deal with. In 2012, livestock and poultry in the largest CAFOs in the United States produced 369 million tons of manure, or almost 13 times the waste of the entire U.S. population, according to an analysis of USDA figures done by Food & Water Watch. CAFOs dispose of animal waste by washing it into holding ponds and applying it to nearby fields as fertilizer, creating an excess of nitrogen and phosphorus in the soils. The large barns house animals that emit ammonia and fine particulates in the air. Despite its effects on the environment CAFOs are the preferred practice in the hog and poultry industry and is gaining popularity in the cattle industry.

Read More about CAFOs and the Pork Industry Here

Weakening Laws and Myths Surrounding CAFOs

In some ways North Dakota has been shielded from  CAFOs because of  its anti-corporate farming laws. The standard practice for building CAFOs is for an out of state or foreign company to buy the land and set it up for the operation but not have to live next to it. It’s illegal for out of state or foreign entities to own land for farming in North Dakota but if a farm is owned by North Dakotans, the farmer can sign a contract with out of state or foreign companies and run it as an independent contractor. CAFOs have to be approved by the local zoning boards to be allowed to be built, which is a challenge because convincing the public to allow a CAFO next door to their property is usually a tough sell. In 2019 North Dakota took away that local control by passing Senate Bill 2345 which allows the Ag Commissioner to overrule a township ‘s decision to not permit CAFOs, and HB 1388, which expanded the definition of family farms to include second cousins. 

Proponents of CAFOs see them as an opportunity for economic growth and believe that North Dakota is an untapped market with tons of potential. The reality is that more CAFOs can’t be built in places like southern Minnesota, South Dakota and Iowa without increasing the risk of harm to the hogs and  increasingly organized public opposition. The industry needs to expand if it wants to continue to be profitable and to do that they need to convince new farmers and communities to keep building them. CAFO supporters argue that they will bring new jobs to the community and a new market to sell corn and soybeans for animal feed. The truth is, the CAFO business model relies on low paid, usually migrant workers rather than members of the community. CAFOs are a closed loop system. The company that finances the CAFO also sells the CAFO owner the feed for the CAFO owners animals. As a result, none of the feed is sourced locally. This takes away potential business from local farmers because the feed is sourced from out of state. CAFOs very rarely bring any money to the community but they do lower property values and force the community and local residents to deal with the pollution problems they cause. 

Farm Reform Proposal  

At the federal level there is legislation that would reform the agriculture industry in ways that haven’t been done in decades. The Farm Reform bill of 2020 is sponsored by Sen Cory Booker (D-New Jersey). This legislation would go a long way in reforming not only agriculture but help revitalize rural communities, too.. It would place an immediate moratorium on new CAFOs and ban them outright by 2040. All communities affected by the ban would be subsidized for job retraining and agricultural reorganization. The bill would reinstate mandatory Country of Origin Labeling and add new enforcement tools through the Packers and Stockyard Act. This legislation, while a long shot at passing with the current congressional makeup, has the blueprint we need to start reforming the future of North Dakota and the Agricultural industry.

New Opportunities for North Dakota Farmers and Ranchers

North Dakota is positioned to be a leader in several industries if the right decisions are made and the right investors make it happen. Hemp is a recently legalized crop that could bring new industry to western North Dakota, wind energy could expand to make us self-sufficient and solar energy has many uses in rural North Dakota.

Wind to Supplement Farm Income

Anyone who lives in North Dakota can tell you that wind blows here almost all the time. North Dakota has more than 1,500 wind turbines. North Dakota’s wind resource is ranked sixth in the country and the state ranks 11th for installed wind capacity, getting more than 20% of its power from wind resources. Wind could be the key to bringing a clean baseload of energy to the state and many rural electric co-ops are starting to integrate it into their portfolios. In addition, wind can represent a boost in off-farm income for farmers and ranchers. But questions remain, such as when wind turbines are installed, can we make sure that landowners receive fair compensation for their land? Many landowners are given a one time payment for a wind turbine that will be on their land for the next 30 years. Is there a way to compensate them for the power that is generated? These questions and more need to be answered. Policies have been proposed at the North Dakota Legislature that aimed to get all landowners paid for wind near or on their property, even if the turbine was not sited on their property. This policy is called “Wind Unitization”. If properly applied, “Wind Unitization” could assuage many landowner concerns regarding wind because all landowners would be fairly compensated. 

“I’m two hours from the nearest oil well, but can see Falkirk Coal Mine from where I live. I know that there’s coal under my land. We’ve gone green the best we can, we use solar for electric fencing, and solar to power water the wells for our cattle. I’m looking at making a solar chicken coop with heating in the floor powered by solar panels. If my house wasn’t over a hundred years old, I would use solar to heat it.”

-Glen Phllbrick

Solar Powering Farms and Ranches 

North Dakota farmers like Glen can benefit from more widespread solar in North Dakota due to recent technological advances that have lowered the cost of solar. North Dakotamight not be the first place people think of as a place that solar energy could take off but the state receives more sunlight annually than Florida or Texas. The state currently ranks last solar production but projects have been started. Solar can be used in many rural communities across the state. It is  an effective way to water cattle or power irrigation pumps, some solar cells can be rented from electric companies for as little as $18 per month. In addition, farmers and ranchers can use solar to power their homes or to get hot water. According to (who/what) distributed solar saves the cost of installing electrical power lines that can cost as much as $15,000 per mile. Solar could be especially useful in rural communities and farmsteads because they wouldn’t have to rely on expensive wiring to hook them up to the grid and could foster energy independence.

“The way that things are going in this country, my mother is all up in a kerfuffle, so we’re looking into solar and other ways to be more sustainable. We’re also looking into making our cisterns that haven’t been used in 80 years usable again so we have access to drinking water for the cows and other livestock in case the grid goes down. We’re not being crazy, we are being practical. We never thought we’d see the day when we might have to turn the wheels back in order for life to make sense again, but here we are, so here we go.”

-Jenna Vanhorne

Hemp Brings Jobs

Farmers may have a potential solution to our jobs problem in industrialized hemp. Hemp has been grown in the United States since the days of our founding fathers and can be used to make everything from rope to paper. As a crop it was banned in 1937 when the Cannabis genus was classified as a Schedule 1 drug. The ban was lifted in all fifty states by the 2018 Farm Bill. Hemp is a good crop for North Dakota because the climate and soil type are optimal for the plant’s needs.

With legalization comes opportunity. Hemp can be used to replace plastics, fiberglass, building materials, and as a cheaper source of ethanol and paper. All of these products can be made in North Dakota from North Dakota grown hemp if the right markets are created. North Dakota is well suited in climate and could raise these crops in large quantities. Hemp’s bulkiness and light weight make it inefficient to ship long distances so the processing industry needs to be built near where it is grown. Hemp has some hurdles to overcome such as creating a formal market and building the infrastructure to process it but a growing demand for biodegradable materials in manufacturing and packaging makes the hemp industry potentially lucrative in the future.

A Regenerative North Dakota

North Dakota has a choice, can we find alternative energy solutions that are ripe for the taking or do we hold on to declining fossil fuel industries? Do we continue to allow farms to consolidate and grow bigger or do we change policy to ensure fair markets and policies that don’t require farmers to own over 1,000 acres to survive? Can we come up with economically viable practices to regenerate our topsoil and provide relief for climate change or do we continue to pay billions of dollars for weather relief? Do we invest in local foods or continue to rely on food produced outside of North Dakota?

North Dakota can be a leader; wind and solar energy are abundant here. We can bring a strong diverse portfolio of green jobs across rural North Dakota. Regionally we can build slaughterhouses and raise local produce that would provide healthy foods to residents across the area and good prices to producers. We could provide farmers and ranchers with healthy soils programs that would capture carbon. We can practice regenerative farming that could take care of our land for generations to come.

We can become a place where a farmer could give the farm to their children and those children could make a living on the farm. This North Dakota is not impossible to achieve and though the path to achieving this North Dakota has many challenges, don’t we owe it to ourselves to try?